2013年2月28日

意大利很亂?談計算政府穩定性的問題

關於最新意大利政壇的困局,有「做足功課」的港媒去查了一下意大利資料,發現意國更換總理次數頻繁,就說意大利政制怎樣混亂,令政府長期都是短命,施政困難云云。但我看著同樣的資料,卻可以說意大利政壇長期非常穩定!同樣資料,不同結論,只因連學界本身對於怎樣計算政府是否穩定,都有不同定義。

先看看某很用功的港媒的報導:

「意大利二戰後至今出現過近50個短命政府,很大程度歸咎於1948年通過的新憲法,着重議會的代表性,多於政府運作有效性,國會參、眾兩院都採用嚴謹的比例代表制,令政黨難以獨大,同時令施政困難。」

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/international/art/20130227/18178265

之後再看看到底意國換過多少次政府: (由於次數的確很多,不能盡錄,請直接參看 Wiki)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Italy#Presidents_of_the_Council_of_Ministers_of_the_Italian_Republic_.281946_.E2.80.93_present.29

一「look」下去,單是計二戰後 (1946年後) 的意大利,即意大利推倒君主制成為共和制後的時間,也要「look」9頁才看到現任總理蒙蒂,真是廣東話講的「水蛇春咁長」!

我們再縮短時間帶,只看1946至1981年的35年。當中換過21次總理,即平均1.7年換一次。把改組內閣也算進去,則是改組過38次政府,平均每11個月就換一次,連一年也捱不住!搞成這樣,還不是意大利政局混亂?可是即使看著同樣這個表,我用不同計法,依然可以說意大利政局在這段期間非常穩定!

首先我們看總理的名字和相片,有沒有發現有些人重複出現?沒錯,如果只計總理人選,這段期間是有14人曾出任總理,平均任期增加至2.5年一人。再仔細點看,這14人全部來自同一個政黨,基督民主黨 (DC)!如果我們計算政治穩定的基礎,是看執政黨的話,那意大利35年來都由同一個政黨掌權,豈不是非常穩定?

我們再換一換時間帶,改為看1946至1992這46年。數字則轉為:48次改組政府、28任總理、18個總理人選、只有3個政黨的人做過總理。也就是說:平均11.5個月改組一次政府、平均1.6年換一次總理、每人平均做2.6年總理、每個政黨平均執政15.3年。再再再仔細點看,基民黨在46年間掌握住總理職位40年,而即使是沒有出任總理期間,基民黨亦有參與聯合政府,所以基民黨是在這46年間無間斷地參加政府。如果再再再再再仔細分析,這46年間更是每場選舉都是由基民黨勝出做第一大黨,選民表態非常,甚至可以說是異常,地穩定。

不同計法,你可以說意大利很混亂,也可以說意大利很穩定。在計算政府穩定性方面,學界並無統一客觀標準。但只是說這段期間的意大利政局的話,一般分析都認為是基民黨一黨獨大,是穩定多於不穩定。

而且事實是,意大利雖然在二戰中後期也淪為戰場,受到嚴重破壞,戰後在美國支援下卻快速復甦,在50跟60年代經濟增長每年平均超過5%。謹管期後增長放緩,現在仍是歐盟第4大經濟體,及世界第8大經濟體,G8成員之一。而且別忘了,「貝佬」貝盧斯科尼在90年代至今,斷斷續續掌權9年,單論政府更和次數,較90年代以前為少,但經濟卻無甚改善。經濟表現跟政府更換頻繁,似乎亦無直接關係。

好吧,講到這裡,感覺上只是我又為駁而駁,想說港媒又怎麼不了解外國政治,然後乘機抬高自己。我沒講過我沒有這個意思。不過其實這背後還有一個更深層次的問題,也可以應用在香港上。不過時間夜了,有機會再講。(希望不要又走數。)

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